Anon has hit the nail on its head…All this technical analysis is garbage so people stay away from all this talks of guesses being educated guesses and likes..They are all their to suck your money

In the given example, you taken SMA 50 and SMA 200. Any reason for it? Why not 10 or 20 days SMA instead of 50 days and 200 days SMA?

First Buy Signal; DOW at 10.6k
Next Sell Signal; DOW at 9.6k
Next Buy Signal; DOW at 8.6k
Next Sell Signal; DOW at 10.3k
Next Buy Signal; DOW at 10.6k
Next Sell Signal; DOW at 10.5k
Over Five years total income = -1k+1.7k-0.1k = 0.6k
On a base of ~10k thats a whopping 6% return over 5 short years implying a great 1% return per year.

Counting brokerage, STT etc you will be at one BIG ZERO or most likely NEGATIVE. Simple FD would have got you 40% in the interim without ever looking at any screen or broker.

Enjoy yourself at technical trading but please know that you will be poorer and your brokers richer over a 20 year period.

Now there will always be some bloke who will claim how he made a zillion bucks doing technicals. But lets put it in perspective. Lets look at every possible stock in every possible market in the world and plot billions of charts. Now see how many of these DMA theories work and how many don’t. That ratio will turn out to be ~50% over a hundred year span implying you win half the time and loose half the time. In short collectively this group of investors makes nothing. But there will be those lucky few who will write books and publish new theories every day.

Chew on this one again if you have’nt read it already.
Suppose there were 1,000,000 chimpazees in a room. And they were asked to call heads or tails on a coin flipping contest (the same 50% probability as above). After the first flip 500k would loose and 500k would win. After the second flip, 250k would be left and so on. After 20 flips there would be one chimp left. He would have called right 20 times in a row. By now he would have written books/theories/blogs and probably won a Nobel on how to call a toin coss. Many would follow him and write more books. The would examine room temperature, air velocity, flippers palm size, eyesight of participants and write more on all these factors that influence winning. The fact is he just happened to get lucky and is still a chimp! Chartists and Chimps in a coin flipping contest have a lot in common.

How to predict the movement of SMA 50 after a pivotal point? it can go the same direction or if lucky, oposite direction. How does an investory decide on that?

Thanks for the reply say for eg. i want to invest (STP) in Canara Robeco Equity Tax Saver what should be my investing strategies…

Thanks

Ketan

Recently i read about STP (systematic transfer plan) but was confused as it has very little information… it also says that its good investment in the current market scenario… will you pls. provide me with complete information about this product and how to invest in it.

Thanks

Ketan