Categories: IndicesInvesting

How does one differentiate between a bull market correction and bear market Phase?

First of all Let me define what is a bear market by definition

Bear markets are time periods when prices of equities keep falling down over a long period of time and the general consensus among the traders and investors in the market is that they tend to believe that it will continue to their downward movement for the foreseeable time in the future. Typically bear markets are associated with economic contractions, recessions, high unemployment, low export and high inflation.

Now how does one differentiate between a bull market correction and a bear market?

There is no simple and single answer to this because after all its market but experience of many people in the past have suggested that a correction of 20% with a 5-7 successful closing below that are considered as a bear market.

So now by definition India as well as most of the emerging market fall into the bear market category and we had a pull back on the Nifty and Sensex an exact amount of 30% and so if you take some of the stocks particularly the large caps and the market leaders you will find a considerable number which are much more than 30%. So from such a context one would say that the odds are quite heavily leading towards us having slipped out of bull phase and leaning into what me may call as a bear phase. Coming back to India, we still have a robust GDP growth rate at the moment. We have to watch out for inflation and interest rate to see where we are headed.

Advance definition of bear market

If we have 20% as the benchmark for considering bear market only then it does not take into account the speed at which market had a bull run and so now many people tend to be more comfortable at 30-33% retracement of the Indices as better indicator of bear market.

Handling Bear Market

One who wait for things to cool down and then go out and buy stocks that nobody else cares about. Keep your cool and start accumulating value scripts and try forgetting them for a year plus term and that way you will get Tax Free solid return.

Shabbir Bhimani

A trader, investor, consultant and blogger. I mentor Indian retail investors to invest in the right stock at the right price and for the right time.

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Shabbir Bhimani

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